Yeah, someone actually wrote that. Why? Apple slashed their earnings number by $7-billion. The last time the company slashed expected earnings numbers was in 2002. Steve Jobs did the deed. As a percentage, 2002’s earnings cut was less than what Tim Cook did this week.
So, who thinks Apple is the next Nokia? Nearly every Apple critic, members of the technorati elite politburo, and Apple’s growing legion of nattering nabobs of negativism. Oh, and Rod Hall of Goldman Sachs.
Nokia saw rapid expansion of replacement rates in late 2007 that was well beyond what any linear forecast would have implied
Apple had rapid revenue and profit expansion from, well, much of the 21st century, and especially so in the iPhone era since 2007. Similarities? Much of the negative news about Apple seems to indicate the company is doomed. Again.
Yet, most of the revenue shortfall can be blamed on China. Not the U.S., not Canada, not Europe, or other parts of Asia or planet earth. Just China.
Beyond China, we don’t see strong evidence of a consumer slowdown heading into 2019 but we just flag to investors that we believe Apple’s replacement rates are likely much more sensitive to the macro now that the company is approaching maximum market penetration for the iPhone.
Any problems in the technology gadget industry are always, 1) Apple, and, 2) iPhone. Nobody else is ever considered. Why not? Apple’s iPhone brings in well more than half the entire industry’s revenue and well more than half of the entire industry’s profits.
Where Apple goes, the smartphone industry goes.
I have money in the stock market and I’m not happy with what is going on. Wall Street or Pennsylvania Avenue. It seems to me that a bunch of crazies and greedy rich people are running the show. The rest of us just get to watch.
As to comparing Nokia to Apple or APPL or the iPhone, well, anyone who does that is just nuts. Nokia was topped by a better product. iPhone. Then Android OS. Apple is not in danger– yet– of being topped by a competitor. Apple has a few hundred billion dollars in the bank. Apple has a billion rather fanatical customers (Nokia had less money, greater marketshare, and more customers, but they were so pro-Nokia they moved by the millions to iPhone within a few years).
This ain’t the same thing, folks.
Just remember this; buy low, sell high. And think a moment about these so-called experienced and smart market analysts; why didn’t they know the smartphone market has been stagnant for four years? Apple gave them the numbers. Why didn’t they know that China is a different market than the U.S?
When these same market prognosticators tell me Apple and Nokia are the same then I’m inclined not to listen.