Is Microsoft’s “Wave Of Innovation” Bye Bye Ballmer?

You gotta love the new media. Finally, there's a way to monitor the monitors.

I'm a self-avowed, dues paying, card-carrying, experienced Apple Watcher™. By default, that makes me a Microsoft Watcher™, too, right? Well, it's what I do.

BallmerThe following is an outliine of a recent series of events, characters, situations, quotes, and blunders that tell me that Apple will continue to do well, and Microsoft is learning how to weather a storm. Or two. Or a dozen.

My case in point is Windows Vista (formerly code-named Longhorn, and soon to be referred to as Windows XP Pro Service Pack 4). If you haven’t heard, don’t worry about it, but Vista won’t show up now until 2007. Remember 2004? Then, in succession, 2005, 2006, and still no successor to Windows XP.

Why? What happened? Arguably, Microsoft is the richest company in the world (check those profit margins and cash in the bank), with more engineers than Apple has customers.

Why can’t they deliver on an update of Windows? After all, little bitty, insignificant-market-share Apple has updated OS X about four times in five years, with another on the way.

Can you say Copland? Copland was a project to create a new operating system at Apple back in the 90s. It was designed to be the end all, be all, monolithic Everything Inside™ cool OS, and still be backwards compatible with Mac OS 7.5.x and Mac applications.

Except it didn’t happen that way. Why? It’s too complex. It might be easier to put a man on the moon, than build a new operating system from scratch that has everything, and everything else, and still more, and be compatible with what’s already running on 350-million PCs.

Uh, didn’t Apple do that with Classic and Mac OS X? Yes. Didn’t that give them a clean slate to introduce the chocolate coolness of Cocoa and XCode? Yes.

Why can’t Microsoft do the same? Because they haven’t weathered the same storm that Apple went through with Copland to get to Mac OS X. Now, Microsoft is up to their collective asses in substantive dirty water.

And dirty laundry. How so? Because Chairman, co-founder and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates is in charge of software, and his five year report card is being compared to Microsoft’s flat-lined stock price. F. Dead.

How so? Because CEO and Peter Boyle look-alike Steve Ballmer spends less time leading the company than he does running the company into the ground. Five years. No new Windows. No change in the stock price.

So, what does the dynamic duo do in such a situation? Just days ago, Ballmer told Forbes that Microsoft will roll out ”an amazing wave of innovation” with a dozen new products this year.

One of them won’t be Windows Vista, and your guess is as good as anyone else as to the others.

“My children--in many dimensions they’re as poorly behaved as many other children, but at least on this dimension I’ve got my kids brainwashed: You don’t use Google, and you don’t use an iPod.”Not to be outdone by his Young Frankenstein bodyguard, Bill Gates says, ”Security issues have made it more imperative to get up on the latest technology.” Oh, really?

How about this? ”The big issue nowadays isn’t performance; I mean, we perform super, super, super well.” Wasn’t it Cleopatra who said, ”Performance is in the eye of the beholder, Mark”?

Meanwhile, the Empire displays a strain and stress the public has never seen. Microsoft employees openly call for Ballmer’s resignation and more accountability with each Windows Vista delay. The head hunted are now the head hunters.

To counter the bad publicity, Ballmer goes on the offensive, which, for him, appears to be child’s play. How so? He admits to brainwashing his children to avoid Apple’s iPod and Google searches, in favor of Microsoft solutions.

When asked if he owned an iPod, Ballmer responded gleefully, ”I do not. Nor do my children. My children--in many dimensions they’re as poorly behaved as many other children, but at least on this dimension I’ve got my kids brainwashed: You don’t use Google, and you don’t use an iPod.”

What else? Microsoft faces tens of millions of customer who don’t like their products, while Apple basks in tens of millons of customers (arguably a smaller number) who border on fanaticism.

What’s wrong with this picture? How did the world’s largest, richest, most powerful software company get this way? They’ve never had to weather a storm, work through a true crisis, or bet the farm.

That would appear to be on the day-to-day To-Do list for Apple, but Microsoft doesn’t have that kind of experience or intestinal fortitude, hence the problems grow, become baggage that never gets handled.

Witness a recent show where Microsoft demonstrated new features in Windows Vista. The technology press, the same folks who write about Apple and iPod and Mac in glowing terms, were outright derisive, bored, annoyed, bitter.

Microsoft’s new slogan is ”People Ready.” Apparently leadership at the Redmond Giant wasn’t ready, as two days later they announced that Windows Vista wouldn’t be ready for users until 2007.

Is Windows rattled? Yes, as is much of Microsoft these days. What innovation can a Microsoft customer expect in the next 12 months? Many customers and Microsoft employees request innovative changes at the executive level, starting from the top down.

It won’t happen, and Microsoft won’t die, either. But it’ll be fun watching what happens. I’m an Apple fan, a Mac user, and a Microsoft Watcher™. It’s what we do.

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Reader comments...
Art Nelson says:

Very nicely put, Tera.

And I like how he tacitly admitted how insanely great iPods are. Brainwashing might be the only technique that can keep Apple’s magical plastic gadget out of his kids’ outreached hands.

I know I keep beating this dead horse, but another sign of trouble is the dearth of Paul Thurrott articles singing the praises of Vista.

CNN has some great vids of Guy Kawasaki thoughtfully responding to questions of Why Apple hasn’t died, what makes them great, etc. And it really does boil down to the aesthetic and innovative passions of Steve Jobs.

Ballmer is more suited for High School football coaching and Gates is a complete, hopeless nerd. What can possibly trickle down from that?

If I were Apple, running Windows software in a window on OSX would be priority one. They really could deliver a devastating blow right now.


Jarod says:

There is no greater satisfaction than seeing Microshit being destroyed. That garbage doesn’t deserve what it got from market and now its time to take that virus out once and for all; including all the ‘innovative’ staff that go along with it.


Tit Lick says:

Can’t wait to dance on the grave of Microsoft and it’s moronic management.

Until the moron class sees using a Mac as cool they won’t make a change. These people are always way late to the game, like they are into disco about now since “it’s the latest rage”, so no holding your breath. But when the herd turns watch out.

As to Microsoft they died at least five years ago and it’s simply the preservation of their boatload of money and corporate customer ignorance that prevents the stench from forcing everyone to Apple.


Dan says:

lovely post tera… and such a perfect photo to go along with it… :D Long live Apple.


shaitan says:

The most unenlightening thing that Steve Ballmer ever said. How does he expect to compete, if you don’t try using the competitor’s wares and try to understand how you could go beyond it. This attitude indicates his shallow grasp on the world and why MS fosters “good enough” crap upon the world.


Rad Wagner says:

Check out the amazing discussion at
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2006/03/vista-2007-fire-leadership-now.html
started by a Microsoft employee, and joined by many others in and out of Microsoft. There’s over 500 comments! The frustration level inside MS seems to be very high, and the morale very low. Very enlightening, with lots of detail.


Swissfondue says:

Business customers couldn’t care less about Vista eye-candy. They want security, networking, reliability and productivity enhancing applications. Consumers mainly buy hardware and want things to work including their existing programs.

So it makes sense to have XP SP 4 if it includes improvements in these areas. Of course, this doesn’t generate much additional revenue for Microsoft.

This is why MS is pushing for a “new” OS. No one else really wants it. That is MS’s main problem: convincing people to think it is not XP SP 4 but a whole new creation. The jettisoning of the most important underlying OS changes (WinFS for example) have made this a hard sell. 

Regardless, as long as Vista is bundled with almost all PC hardware sales, MS has nothing to worry about. But this is why missing X-Mas 2006 season is so bad for MS. No new Office 12 sales as well in 2006.

Luckily I own a 12” PB and couldn’t care less:)


John C. Randolph says:

Microsoft’s fixation on competition shows how completely out of ideas they really are.  They look around for enemies: Apple, Google, IBM, Sony, even Adobe, and ask “how can we take over their business”, instead of looking to their customers, and asking “what do they want?  what will they buy?”

The long and short of it is, MS isn’t a technology company at all.  They have a lot of decent developers there, but they’re dismally led by an incompetent marketdroid, and his legions of middle-managers.

They’re going to take decades to collapse, but Windows Vista will be remembered as their downfall.

-jcr


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